Dave Martin, is an exercise physiologist, coach and marathon statistician. He predicted that a woman would break 2:20 timing in 2002, and indeed Naoko Takahashi of Japan ran a 2:19:46 timing in September 2001. Using his own formula and graph, Dave Martin predicts a Sub 2-Hour Marathon timing would be likely be achieved in 2015. Quite a bold prediction … To have a sub 2-hour timing, that would mean the runner would have to cover the half marathon below an hour and have enough energy to complete the rest of the distance in about the same time. For your info, the current half marathon record is currently being held by Samuel Wanjiru at 58:33. So a marathoner just need to replicate Wanjiru effort twice! The current marathon record is held by Ethiopian running legend Haile Gebrselassie at 2:03:59, during the recent Berlin Marathon. Gebrselassie erased his old mark by some 27 seconds in near perfect running condition At the current record smashing pace Gebrselassie is doing, will we ever see a sub 2-hour marathon run in our lifetime or do we have to wait for 2015 as Dave Martin predicted? Well experts are saying that we are to expect more marathon records in the future, with potential runners such as Olympic champion Samuel Wanjiru of Kenya and hopefully Ethiopia’s Kenenisa Bekele, but don’t expect a sub 2-hour marathon timing in this lifetime Kenenisa Bekele is the most likely prospect to lower the marathon mark considerably, considering he has broken Gebrselassie’s 5000m and 10000m track record. His timings is around 5 seconds faster compared to Gebrselassie timing for the track records, but Bekele has yet to move on to the marathon event. So when Bekele finally transition to marathon, I’m sure records will tumble Marathon Record Progression
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